WH
WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (WH)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 delivered resilient profitability but softer top-line: adjusted EPS $1.46 (+5% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA $213M (+2% YoY), while fee-related & other revenues fell 3% to $0.382B on lower RevPAR and franchise fees .
- Against S&P Global consensus, EPS modestly beat and revenue missed: EPS $1.46 vs $1.437*; revenue $0.382B vs $0.402B* (12 EPS est.; 9 revenue est.) — a mixed print likely to refocus investors on near-term demand softness and guidance cuts (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
- Full-year guidance lowered: global RevPAR (cc) to down 3% to down 2% (from down 2% to up 1%), fee-related & other revenues to $1.43–$1.45B (from $1.45–$1.49B), adjusted EBITDA to $715–$725M (from $730–$745M), and adjusted EPS to $4.48–$4.62 (from $4.60–$4.78) .
- Development remains a bright spot: record pipeline at ~257k rooms (+4% YoY), 204 contracts (+24% YoY), system rooms +4% YoY, and ancillary revenues +18% YoY; company highlighted technology/loyalty advances as growth drivers .
- Key catalysts: near-term—lowered FY25 outlook and U.S. RevPAR softness; medium-term—AI-driven direct contribution uplift, subscription loyalty launch, and multi-year pipeline execution .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Adjusted EPS and EBITDA growth despite RevPAR headwinds: adjusted EPS $1.46 (+5% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA $213M (+2% YoY), aided by cost containment and share repurchases .
- Record development momentum and pipeline quality: pipeline ~257k rooms (+4% YoY), 204 contracts (+24% YoY); ~70% midscale & above, ~75% new construction, ~36% broken ground; rooms under construction +3% YoY .
- Technology and loyalty advances driving ancillary revenue: ancillary revenues +18% YoY; management emphasized AI agents (500k interactions; 25% lower handle time; ~300 bps direct contribution uplift) and the “Wyndham Rewards Insider” subscription .
Quote: “We delivered record year-to-date organic room openings, grew our global pipeline to another all-time high, and achieved double-digit growth in ancillary revenues – all while expanding our portfolio with high-quality, FeePAR-accretive hotels.” — CEO Geoff Ballotti .
What Went Wrong
- Global RevPAR down 5% (cc), with U.S. down 5% and international down 2%; U.S. softness concentrated in Texas, Florida, and California .
- Fee-related & other revenues fell to $0.382B (–$12M YoY), driven by lower RevPAR and other franchise fees; marketing fund variability helped EBITDA but underlying comparable EBITDA was flat .
- FY25 guidance cut across revenue, EBITDA, EPS, and RevPAR; marketing funds expected to overspend by ~$5M in FY25 (to be recovered in future periods) .
Financial Results
Quarterly Trend (oldest → newest)
YoY Comparison (Q3 2024 vs Q3 2025)
Estimates vs Actuals (Q3 2025)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment Breakdown
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Amid a challenging macro backdrop, we delivered record year-to-date organic room openings, grew our global pipeline to another all-time high, and achieved double-digit growth in ancillary revenues – all while expanding our portfolio with high-quality, FeePAR-accretive hotels.” — CEO Geoff Ballotti .
- CFO on guidance actions: “Through cost containment...we have been able to offset approximately $30M of revenue shortfall as well as $15M of incremental cost...Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be between $715M and $725M.” — Michele Allen .
- On AI impact: “Wyndham AI...has already handled more than 500,000 customer interactions...and a 25% reduction in average handle time...contributing to nearly 300 basis points of improvement in direct contribution for hotels leveraging Wyndham AI.” — CEO .
- On structure of demand: “We are seeing nothing structural that concerns us...booking lead times up 2%, lengths of stay consistent, cancellation rates improved by 160 bps.” — CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- Structural concerns in economy segment: Management sees no structural issues; emphasized pricing sensitivity and relative ADR gaps vs upper segments; highlighted improved cancellations and stable booking patterns .
- Outlook color: October showed stabilization in CA/TX/FL; Q4 implied global RevPAR down 7% to 4% (cc) with U.S. likely to lag international .
- Ancillary & credit card: New accounts +10%, spend +7%; multiple initiatives (replatforming, debit card, Wyndham Insider) support multi-year growth tailwinds .
- Marketing fund overspend: ~$5M overspend to support initiatives; recovery targeted in 2026–2027 .
- China strategy: Pivot to direct franchising; no key money deployment; strong signings and pipeline growth .
Estimates Context
- EPS beat and revenue miss vs S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025: EPS $1.46 vs $1.43693* (12 estimates), revenue $0.382B vs $0.4019B* (9 estimates) — mixed outcome amid RevPAR softness (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
- Guidance cuts suggest consensus for FY revenue, EBITDA, and EPS will likely be revised lower; interest expense guide nudged up ($138–$140M) adds incremental headwind .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mixed quarter: resilient EPS/EBITDA but revenue and RevPAR softness; FY25 guidance lowered across RevPAR, revenue, EBITDA, and EPS .
- Development momentum intact: pipeline at record levels, quality skew to midscale/above and new construction, supporting medium-term earnings power .
- Technology/loyalty tailwinds: AI-driven direct booking uplift and subscription loyalty (Wyndham Insider) broaden monetization; ancillary fees continue to outgrow core .
- Near-term trading implication: U.S. RevPAR softness and guidance cuts are likely the dominant narrative; watch Q4 RevPAR trajectory and October/holiday booking trends .
- Medium-term thesis: asset-light model, royalty rate accretion, ancillary monetization, and international/direct franchising mix support compounding once U.S. demand normalizes .
- Capital allocation: continued dividends ($0.41/sh) and buybacks; leverage steady at ~3.5x, revolver upsized to $1B and cheaper (–35 bps), enhancing liquidity .
- Watch items: marketing fund overspend recovery timing; legal/operational resolution around China master license (immaterial to EBITDA historically) .